Forecasting 89
12c platinum / 12C
RPN KEYSTROKES
DISPLAY
12c platinum
ALG KEYSTROKES
DISPLAY
:0
038, 45 0
:6
038, 45 6
z
039, 10
g(000
039,43,33,000
:2
040, 45 2
fs
+
041, 40
?6
042, 44 6
g(000
043,43,33,000
fs
REGISTERS
n: Unused i: Unused PV: Unused PMT: Unused
FV: Unused R
0
: α R
1
: 1-α R
2
: S
t-1
R
3
: T
t-1
R
4
: Σe
2
R
5
: D
t
R
6
: D
ˆ
t+1
R
7
-R
.4
: Unused
Program Instructions:
Selecting the "best" smoothing constant (α ):
1.
Key in the program and press fCLEARH.
RPN Mode:
2.
Key in the number 1 and press \.
3.
Key in the "trial " and press ?0-?1.
ALG Mode:
2.
Key in the number 1 and press -.
3.
Key in the "trial " and press ?0³?1.
4.
Key in the first historical value (X
1
) and press ?2.
5.
Key in the second historical value (X
2
) and press ?6t. The result is the error
between the forecast value
D
ˆ
(
t+1
) and the true value (X
t+1
).
6.
Press
t; the display shows the next forecast D
ˆ
(
t+2
).
7.
Optional: Press
:5 to display the smoothed estimate of current demand.
8. Continue steps 5 and 6 for X
3
, X
4
, ... X
n
until all historical values have been entered.
When doing step 5 merely key in the value and press
t (do not press ?6).
9.
Press
:4. This value represents the cumulative forecasting error (∑e
2
). Record the
value and the following additional values; press
:0 (α), :2 (smoothed average
S
t-1
), :3 (trend T
t-1
) and :6 (forecast D
ˆ
t+1
).
10.
Press
fCLEARH.
11. Repeat steps 2 through 10 until a "best" α is selected based on the lowest cumulative
forecasting error (Register 4).